HURRICANE KATIA and Tropical Storm LEE 9/3/20 114:30am

Colleagues, Hurricane KATIA once again has winds of 75 mph, but the forecasts still remains the same. And Tropical Storm Lee in the Gulf of Mexico is a rainmaker for Southern Louisiana and Alabama and making landfall today. FORECAST: HURRICANE KATIA has winds again of 75 mph making it a Category 1 hurricane as it moves NW at 10 mph. Still about 350 East of the Leeward Islands and about the same Latitude Puerto Rico. Sunday it will be the same Latitude as the most Southern islands of the Bahamas, but 650 miles East as it continues NW and NW. The end of next week I see a more marked turn to the North which is absolutely essential if it is to miss the US. The track may well be shiftiness to the west

Tropical Storm LEE will make landfall on the Central Louisiana coast as forecast. It will continue on a NNE to NE track into Southern Alabama. Maximum winds are in Louisana and they are 50 mph and will be diminishing. The movement is and will be SLOW, which increases the total amount of accumulated rain. Translated this means there will be localized flooding. This should become extatropical soon. Over the weekend and well into next week the rain will extend throughout Louisiana and Alabama and later into the western Florida Panhandle. Alligator Point will see only very modest (insignificant) surge. New Orleans should expect to continue to get a lot of rain over the weekend. Texas, wont get much rain, if any. Sorry.

DISCUSSION: The ridge is building in the Western Atlantic, weakening the strong trough. I am worried that the trough that is approaching may not be that strong. Certainly, the path has shifted some to the west, good for Bermuda which will not get a direct hit. But making a closer approach to the US (NC) than it seemed a week ago. Still the overall guidance is solid and remains the same. It is a matter of degree and a few percent off over a week can be a difference of a hundred miles or more. What is not certain at this point is what will happen when the next trough comes and how much effect it will have on the western portion of the ridge. That will become clearer toward the end of the week. Right now, I think it will be barely strong enough as I see it now and how it evolves in my and other models.

I will be posting a blog on http://www.hurricanehunt.com on STORM SURGE on Sunday. It is not what most people think it is, so I will explain it there.

The next blog will be on my trip to China, with pictures.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow, Sunday

Peter Ray.

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