Colleagues, HURRICANE KATIA will miss all land, but another system is headed our way. FORECAST: HURRICANE KATIA is at the latitude of Florida/Georgia border and moving NNE at 10 mph. MSW are 90 mph which makes it a Category 1 hurricane which it will remain until it is out of sight. It is turning north and by the end of the week will be moving NE and gone, missing North Carolina tomorrow afternoon by 300 miles to the east and Bermuda 250 miles to the west. Minimal impact on either. Front will bring rain and all up and down the East coat for several days, but the most impact will be further north, especially New England. But it is just a front.
Tropical Depression 14 is headed our way but over 1400 east of Leeward Island moving WNW at 17mph Likely to strengthen to a Hurricane in a day or so.
DISCUSSION: TD 14 is moving and accelerating around a strengthening subtropical ridge. Over the weekend that ridge should be eroding and Hurricane Maria (maybe) will curve north. I think Florida might miss this one too but less certain about North Carolina. But that would be close to 10-14 days away, and that is literally a lifetime for these systems. Fairly confident from the weather I see developing that Florida will be spared but the rest is less certain for at least 4 or 5 days when it gets closer to the western boundary of the ridge.
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Peter S. Ray
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