HURRICANE KATIA, NATE; Tropical Storm Maria 9/9/2011 4:00 am

Colleagues, Forecasts holding so far. FORECAST: HURRICANE KATIA i is about 75 miles off the DC coast with winds of 85 mph moving NE, paralleling the US US coastline at 20 mph and accelerating. No threat to any land. HOWEVER, the front with remnants of LEE has caused additional flooding in the central coastal areas.

NATE is a category 2 Hurricane and will make landfall 70-100 miles south Brownsville, TX late Sunday. No rain for Texas :(

Tropical Storm Maria has winds of 40 mph and is gradually strengthening. Movement is 18 mph to the WNW and gradually turning North. FLORIDA will NOT be hit. In a couple of days, we will know more about North Carolina. At present it looks like it will miss all US landfalls and have a path and life that resembles KATIA.

DISCUSSION: MARIA: No dramatic changes, Bahamas will get some rain and rougher seas, that's all. Maria will be 100 off shore from Florida. The real change of path of Maria will not occur until almost a week and it is the strength of that turn that will determine how close it make to the US coast. I suspect that the turn to miss North Carolina will be mid to the latter part of next week. For this forecast to verify there has to be an abrupt turn in about one weeks time and the that is now the critical uncertainty. I am looking for clues.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow morning , Saturday

Peter Ray

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