Tropical Storm OPHELIA 9/22/2011

Colleagues, Ophelia looks like it will nearly mirror Maria. FORECAST: Tropical Storm OPHELIA has winds of 65 mph and is moving W at 13 mph. OPHELIA is located about 1000 miles East of Leeward Islands. By Sunday Ophelia should be just north of the Leeward Islands. Intensity will be roughly the same but over the long term the storm will weaken some. The turn to the north will be begin in earnest this weekend. No threat to FLORIDA and I think anywhere along the East Coast. indicated this time.

DISCUSSION: OPHELIA is moving into an increasingly hostile upper- level winds, at least through the weekend, so there will be no sustained intensification during this period. The Western portion of the ridge shows signs of eroding which will, possibly in the next couple of days, promote the northward turn. And if it gets to 20N before it gets to 60W, then there will be be no landfall. And even it doesn't I think it will be close enough to avoid any landfall.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow, Friday.

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Peter S. Ray

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