Colleagues, Ophelia looks like it will nearly mirror Maria. FORECAST: Tropical Storm OPHELIA has winds of 65 mph and is moving W at 13 mph. OPHELIA is located about 1000 miles East of Leeward Islands. By Sunday Ophelia should be just north of the Leeward Islands. Intensity will be roughly the same but over the long term the storm will weaken some. The turn to the north will be begin in earnest this weekend. No threat to FLORIDA and I think anywhere along the East Coast. indicated this time.
DISCUSSION: OPHELIA is moving into an increasingly hostile upper- level winds, at least through the weekend, so there will be no sustained intensification during this period. The Western portion of the ridge shows signs of eroding which will, possibly in the next couple of days, promote the northward turn. And if it gets to 20N before it gets to 60W, then there will be be no landfall. And even it doesn't I think it will be close enough to avoid any landfall.
NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow, Friday.
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:
I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.
Please do NOT send subscription messages to firstname.lastname@example.org.
To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to email@example.com with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Peter S. Ray
_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list email@example.com http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net