Tropical Storm PHILIPPE 10/3/2011 5:30

Colleagues, Hurricane Season is not over; officially nearly two months left. Tropical Storm PHILIPPE is in the mid-Atlantic heading NW but will shortly heard N and then NE, avoiding all land as forecast a week ago. Although it is not 100% certain, I do not believe Florida will be hit by a storm that forms off the coast of Africa the remainder of this season. And although with less conviction, I also think NC and the east coast will also be spared. This is because for the last few years the position of the jet streams and the southern extent of the fronts have eroded the Atlantic ridges and turned almost all storms away. As the season wears on, the fronts will even be stronger further south. It is a gauntlet that storms have not been able to navigate. Although a landfall from a Cape Verde storm is still possible, but becomes less likely every day.

However, a storm forming in the Caribbean, which hasn't been happening, could easily move into the Gulf and threaten from Florida to Texas. This also has not happened, but it is the more likely scenario if a hurricane was to hit Florida or the US again this year. The FL panhandle would me more threatened than the peninsula, but.... Remember, Charlie, Wilma.

I have finally got with my son's help a blog on my trip to China posted at http://www.hurricanehunt.com I have received more questions on communication of forecasts. I am writing a paper of forecast verification. Although I recognize it would have limited appeal, I will post it sometime in the next few months. I hope to post something on a topic of interest again in a week or two.

Next forecast will be when a new storm threatens.

Peter Ray

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.

NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:

I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.

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Peter S. Ray

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