Tropical Storm Rina 10/24/2011 6am

Colleagues, The season is winding down, but...

FORECAST: Tropical Storm RINA is just off the coast of Honduras moving NW at 5 mph with with winds of 40 mph. It will continue to move in that general direction, slowly strengthening, until the weekend when it will turn to the North over the Yucatan and strengthen appreciably, becoming a hurricane.

DISCUSSION: Through the rest of week is clear, next week is less so, with a turn to the right expected at the beginning of next week. A weak frontal trough is making Rina jog to the north today, but then the ridge will push it more to the west until the end of the week when there will be a strong trough in the east, which will swing Rina to the north. It will also gain hurricane status. What is less certain is next week how much of a turn to the right there will be. In some form, I expect RINA to impact the eastern Gulf Coast, possibly as a tropical storm. In a few days, where and how intense should become clearer.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow morning, Tuesday

Peter Ray

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Peter S. Ray

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