HURRICANE RENA 10/25/2011 5:30am

Colleagues, By early next week, the area around western Cuba is going to be crowed with storms. FORECAST: HURRICANE RENA is still off the coast of Honduras moving WNW at a slow 3 mph toward the Yucatan tip with with winds of 100 mph. The winds will peak tomorrow before it starts to interact with land at Cancun. HURRICANE RENA has already begun to make its recurvature, and will be in the Yucatan Channel by Friday headed NE. From there it becomes more complicated. For certain the Gulf except for south Florida will not be hit. But if the storm weakens enough it might not make it to Florida. It will be a couple of days get enough information to see if RENA will make it to Florida. It might even make a loop in the Yucatan Channel and start over. For sure it will be in the Yucatan Channel Friday.

There is an area just north of South America that will be gaining strength and headed to that same area, the Yucatan Channel. It could get crowed.

DISCUSSION: Expect the area just North of South America (Curacao) to intensify and become a Tropical Storm in the next few days What happens to HURRICANE RENA depends on how much strength it has lost by Saturday. If it remains a strong Hurricane, it will go toward the keys, but that is not likely (at this point). It probably will weaken enough to not be completely caught up in the trough that will be pulling it to the east in a couple of days. Then it could well do a loop-de-loop over western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow

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