Colleagues, I have waited as long as I can, but I think the chances of Florida or anywhere in the USA being hit by a hurricane in the remaining days of 2011 are very small. My reasons are: 1) No storm can form of the coast of Africa and make it across the Atlantic before being swept north on the eastern or western edge of the Atlantic high. 2) Any development will take place in the Caribbean or south of western Cuba where the waters are still close to 90 F. But no storm thus formed can not get to the USA. 3) If they get into the Gulf of Mexico, the water temperatures are now in the 70s and there is also frequently a lot of shear. It would weaken any storm that got into that environment.
Life is all about probabilities, and while the improbable can happen (that is why people by lottery tickets), it is very unlikely, to the point that I would be quite surprised, very surprised if a hurricane hit the USA. in the remaining days of 2011. That does not mean there will be no more storms, only no more hurricanes that hit the USA, and Florida in particular. The East coast now must brace for Nor'easters and a season of snow. Atlanta, ice storms, and spring tornadoes. And Florida, with northern relatives escaping the bitter winters. Insurance companies, who didn't have to pay much in claims in Florida, but rates will go up anyway, And for all of us, grateful that fewer got hurt, and warm food, and the love of friends and family.
At the end of the month, I will make a final posting of a summary of the season.
Have a wonderful Thanksgiving.
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
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Peter S. Ray
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