Colleagues, The 2012 Hurricane season is already upon us. I have a blog that can be reached at http://hurricanehunt.com I will be posting a draft of a recently completed paper on proposed changes to the methodology of presenting and scoring rain and temperature forecasts. You might look for it in a week or two. And if there other weather- related topic you would like me to opine on, just let me know. There are also instructions on that site on how to subscribe to these hurricane emails.
FORECAST: Expect a near average 14-16 named storms and and 7 or 8 hurricanes with 4 or 5 major (winds greater than 110 mph) hurricanes. Last year we did not have any Florida landfalls and one really destructive hurricane, largely do to extensive inland flooding. This year it is likely Floria will see at least one landfall and I would not be surprised to see more than that. It is not modesty that prohibits extended range forecasts, the fact is the history and the (lack of) skill has humbled (somewhat) the hubris of those who attempt to do so.
DISCUSSION: Tropical Storm Alberto barely had a warm heart at its core and really could not counted on to strengthen, despite displaying false signs of maturing. It's heart turn cold and it became like all the others and headed off to the NE in search of a warmer bed. The next Tropical Storm will be named Beryl, and the list is the same as used in 2006. They repeat every 6 years unless a name is retired.
NEXT FORECAST: When something develops or if it is necessary to get the kinks out of the distribution system..
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:
I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.
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Peter S. Ray
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