Colleagues, Despite model guidance, Debby appears less that 100% cooperative. The storm has moved to the NE recently, so the trough is exerting some influence. In situations where all the pushes and pull are week, it is even hard to see them in the data. Bottom line Rain like this for Florida no matter what for at least another day, maybe two. If Debby should continue on NE track it will not get much stronger, and not become a hurricane, and the effect on Florida will be about the same either way. If it should turn west, then the effect would be a weak hurricane or strong TS going close to New Orleans. (further north that this mornings forecast - all because of this NE track or jog). It is a question of which force is less weak. I am not giving up on the NE track just yet. By evening it may be possible to tell. If there is any clarification or change, I will send another email. So far, most of Florida is getting much need rain.
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