Tropical Storm Debby

Colleagues, I will not have the data to look and my and other models before early morning, but traditional models have not handled this storm well. I think it is clear, the Florida Panhandle will handle the brunt of this, but only as a Tropical storm.. I doubt there will be a major change in storm strength before landfall. Landfall will be in the Apalachicola area, but with such weak movement of 3 mph, that is not much conviction. The all of Florida north of Okeechobee will have significant rain into the later part of next week Winds are now about 55 mph, and could briefly rise to about 60 but remain well below hurricane strength. Storm tide at specific locations could be significant, as much 6 feet or so. I believe the NWS models will also do better by morning. I have been relying on my model and analysis, and it increasing clear that for one, Texas will not even be close and the Big Bend and west to Apalachicola and PC are the regions that will take the hit. Also the worst weather will be to the east of landfall. In this case it is periodic heavy rain mixed in with squalls and periods of light or no rain until at least mid week, and probably longer. Off the coast maximum winds will be between Panama City and Tallahassee and only about 45 mph, but nearer to 55 mph along the coast. Individual gusts may be higher.

Peter Ray

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Peter S. Ray

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