Tropical Storm Ernesto 8/4/2012 5 am

Colleagues, Much the same forecast. Don't expect anything different for at least several days. FORECAST: Tropical Storm Ernesto is 200 miles south of Puerto Rico with winds of 60 mph, and moving West at 18 mph. TS Ernesto should become a Category 1 hurricane tomorrow afternoon and proceed into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday morning, as a Cat 1 hurricane. Florida will not be affected by this hurricane and maybe not even Texas, just mainly Mexico. There is a slight chance Ernesto will veer to the right toward the end of next week but increasingly it is looking like the Yucatan Peninsula and Central to Northern Mexico will be the points of landfall.

DISCUSSION: The factors remain the same with little change in the forecast and data. It looks increasingly that the ridge will dominate and that the trough will have a minor effect, probably providing some northward push, but too little, too late to do anything but push the track a little northward. However, keep in mind this forecast is for next weekend and there is a lot of real estate between now and then. However, the northern Gulf Coast is out of it as well as the Northern Texas coast.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow morning, Sunday August 5.

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.


I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.


Please do NOT send subscription messages to

To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to

Peter S. Ray

_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list