Colleagues, Much the same forecast. Don't expect anything different for at least several days. FORECAST: Tropical Storm Ernesto is 200 miles south of Puerto Rico with winds of 60 mph, and moving West at 18 mph. TS Ernesto should become a Category 1 hurricane tomorrow afternoon and proceed into the Gulf of Mexico Thursday morning, as a Cat 1 hurricane. Florida will not be affected by this hurricane and maybe not even Texas, just mainly Mexico. There is a slight chance Ernesto will veer to the right toward the end of next week but increasingly it is looking like the Yucatan Peninsula and Central to Northern Mexico will be the points of landfall.
DISCUSSION: The factors remain the same with little change in the forecast and data. It looks increasingly that the ridge will dominate and that the trough will have a minor effect, probably providing some northward push, but too little, too late to do anything but push the track a little northward. However, keep in mind this forecast is for next weekend and there is a lot of real estate between now and then. However, the northern Gulf Coast is out of it as well as the Northern Texas coast.
NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow morning, Sunday August 5.
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Peter S. Ray
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