Tropical Storm Ernesto and Florence 8/5/2012 7:30 am

Colleagues, Much the same forecast for most of the week FORECAST: Tropical Storm Ernesto is 175 miles SE of Jamaica moving westward at 21 mph and with msw (maximum sustained winds) of 50 mph (a little weakening). Ernesto should regain some strength probably becoming a weak hurricane by Wednesday when it should make landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula, which will reduce it to a tropical storm again. Thursday Ernesto will be regaining strength in the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche and turn to the north some. Landfall still looks like next weekend, most probably in northern Mexico, and possibly south Texas as a weak hurricane. If it goes to Texas, you can add a day before landfall.

Tropical Storm Florence is in the Eastern Atlantic with winds of 60 mph moving west at 12 mph. It will be 5 degrees (350) miles north of Ernesto at the same point. Forecast is for weakening and slow turn to the north over the next week. Will not enter the Caribbean sea, but go north of all islands.

DISCUSSION: For Ernesto the ridge is showing signs of weakening on the western edge and the trough now in Texas extends to the SW and slowly is moving eastward. Not clear how much influence it will have but by mid week there should be a turn to the NW. By mid day Wednesday all the cards will be on the table, face up. The unknown quantity is the strength of the trough mid to late next week and how far south it will extend.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow morning, Monday August 6.

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.

NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:

I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.

SUBSCRIPTIONS:

Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net.

To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com.

Peter S. Ray

_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net