Colleagues, FORECAST: Tropical Storm Ernesto is 200 miles east of the eastern tip of Honduras and Nicaragua moving WNW at 10 mph. Winds are 50 mph and will remain roughly the same as it skirts the coast and makes landfall in Belize on Wednesday and crosses the Yucatan Peninsula making landfall in Mexico at the end of the week.
Tropical Storm Florence is 1500 miles east of the Windward islands moving west at 11 mph. Winds have dropped to 35 mph and will decrease over the next few days. The future looks dim for Florence, and least for the next few day it will continue to weaken due to colder waters and increased winds aloft.
DISCUSSION: I see NO chance of even Texas being affected. Some strengthening and some (slight) turn to the NW is possible. As the ridge weakens in the next few days and if it can get to the Southern Gulf , Ernesto could regain strength prior to landfall at the end of this week. Trough will just be too weak to make much difference.
NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow morning, Tuesday August 7.
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
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Peter S. Ray
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