Tropical Storm Ernesto 8/7/2012 4:30 am

Colleagues, I will be visiting the National Hurricane Center and the Hurricane Research Division, both NOAA laboratories, tomorrow, but expect to send out my forecast Wednesday and Thursday from the road. In general, my thoughts of a dominate "Southern Strategy" seems to be holding up. But expect an uptake in activity during the next month, beginning in a week. FORECAST: Tropical Storm Ernesto is 200 miles south of the western tip of Cuba moving WNW at 12 mph with winds of 65 mph. Some strengthening will occur and it will become a minimal (Category 1) hurricane before it makes landfall tomorrow morning in the Yucatan Peninsula. After a trip over the southern Gulf (Bay of Campeche), Ernesto will make landfall in Central Mexico late Thursday night or early Friday morning. NO part of the USA will be affected.

Tropical Storm Florence is has degenerated into an area of interest with a very uncertain and probably unimportant future, even though it is likely to become a bit more organized in the days ahead. No substantial strengthening or threat in the future (or at least for week).

DISCUSSION: I see NO chance of even Texas being affected. As the ridge weakens in the next few days Ernesto could regain some strength prior to landfall at the end of this week. Trough is just be too weak to make much difference.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow morning, Wednesday August 8.

Peter Ray

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Peter S. Ray

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