Tropical weather 8/21/2012 4:30am

Colleagues, Rough weather ahead in a week. FORECAST: Tropical Depression 9 (tomorrow to be named Tropical Storm Isaac) is 700 miles east to the windward islands headed west at 19 mph and will make landfall in the Windward Islands late tomorrow afternoon. Once in the Caribbean Isaac will continue to strengthen to hurricane status. Florida is expected to have some impact. Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba will all be on the "wrong" side of this storm.

The tropical wave 400 miles southwest of Cape Verde Islands continues to become better organized but it is too early to know if will cross that threshold and become a viable tropical system. Again it will be clearer by weeks end.

DISCUSSION: TD 9 It is being steered by a widespread ridge that pervades the Atlantic . A shortwave trough is digging south and will cause recurvature by weeks end. This will pull Isaac north. Florida will be affected, the question is: how much? There is a good chance, if the trough makes it that far south (I will know if a few days), then Florida could get hit in about a week. it could be a off the east coast or the panhandle at this point. I should know in a couple of days. It really really is in the hands of this short wave so that is where the forecast centers.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow, August 22

Peter Ray

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Peter S. Ray

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