Tropical Storm Isaac 8/22/2012 5:00 am

Colleagues, No hurricane in Tampa next week FORECAST: Tropical Storm Isaac will cross the Windward islands tonight as it heads basically west at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds are now 45 mph but will strengthen to hurricane force winds tomorrow. Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba will experience hurricane force winds or gusts and heavy rains. Tampa will have tropical storm force winds and rain (both squalls and some continuous) gusts, but NOT a hurricane hit. Closest approach to Tampa will be Tuesday and Wednesday. Rough seas will exist but probably not as bad, but close to it, as with Debby.

The tropical wave 400 miles southwest of Cape Verde Islands continues to become better organized but it is too early to know if will cross that threshold and become a viable tropical system. Again it will be clearer by weeks end.

DISCUSSION: The trough, is digging with short wave and should begin to be felt by Friday. Path confirmation is possible this weekend. The keys will experience at least hurricane force gusts and maybe sustained winds as with southern Florida. All the peninsular Florida will have squalls and gusts and heavy at times rain through most of next week. How far west it extends will be know by Saturday - it all depends when this trough weakens the ridge and recurvature takes place and how sharp a turn it is.

This same trough my keep the storm in the eastern Atlantic from reaching our shores however it is very likely to become a tropical storm, at least, in the days ahead.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow, August 23

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Peter S. Ray

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