Tropical Storm Isaac 8/24/2012 5:00 am

Colleagues, Little change in forecast except impact on Florida downgraded a bit. No significant threat to Tampa. FORECAST: Tropical Storm Isaac is now somewhat disorganized south of the Dominican Republic. Max winds are 45 mph and Isaac is headed WNW at 14mph. By this time tomorrow it will have crossed Haiti, and by this this time Sunday exit Central to western Cuba, no more and maybe less than a tropical storm - battered and weak. By Monday it will have gained strength in the Florida straights and the Keys and Miami area will have a lot of rain, Tropical Storm force winds, elevated surge and possibly hurricane force gusts.

Monday morning Isaac will emerge into the Gulf and begin to get better organized and probably will become a hurricane before making landfall in the Mobile Bay area, possibly as far west as New Orleans and maybe as far east as Pensacola. It will miss Tampa by about 175 miles. Tampa will experience high tides (not quite as bad as Debby) and storm surge and tropical storm force gusts (possibly sustained for a few hours), and there will be rain in the the Peninsula of Florida as well as the panhandle throughout the week, moving north with time. Western Florida will experience the strongest winds. Tides in the big bend will not be as high as I mentioned yesterday, but seas will be rough and there will be a storm surge of significance. Landfall mid week.

DISCUSSION: Unchanged.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow, August 25

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Peter S. Ray

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