update

Colleagues, Just an update to let you know, I still get up and make sure everything hurricane-wise is ok. We are in beginning of the last half of the season. It has thus far not turned out as I expected, and I wanted to be more precise in what I expect in the remaining 2 and a half months. I do not expect many if any more storms to take a similar track as Isaac across the Atlantic from the Cape Verde spawning grounds. Simply put, as has been the fate of all such storms last year and so far this year (except Isaac), they are being intercepted by a cold front in the mid Atlantic. Not that it is impossible, but that it is increasing unlikely that the timing would work out that it could reach our shores unmolested. In two weeks, this prediction will become strong.

More likely, if the USA were to be threatened it would come from a storm that formed in the Caribbean. I am still watching.

We should begin to get rain more regularly on a week to 10 day cycle.

Peter Ray

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Peter S. Ray

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