Colleagues, Just an update to let you know, I still get up and make sure everything hurricane-wise is ok. We are in beginning of the last half of the season. It has thus far not turned out as I expected, and I wanted to be more precise in what I expect in the remaining 2 and a half months. I do not expect many if any more storms to take a similar track as Isaac across the Atlantic from the Cape Verde spawning grounds. Simply put, as has been the fate of all such storms last year and so far this year (except Isaac), they are being intercepted by a cold front in the mid Atlantic. Not that it is impossible, but that it is increasing unlikely that the timing would work out that it could reach our shores unmolested. In two weeks, this prediction will become strong.

More likely, if the USA were to be threatened it would come from a storm that formed in the Caribbean. I am still watching.

We should begin to get rain more regularly on a week to 10 day cycle.

Peter Ray

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.


I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.


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Peter S. Ray

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