Colleagues, I wanted to expand on my last forecast for not much chance of additional hurricanes originating in the Eastern Atlantic. I wanted to add that there is almost no chance of the Eastern Coast of Florida being hit by an approaching hurricane and also not much better for North Carolina. However it is possible that one could sneak through. But not not likely at all.

I also said that what possible activity there could be in this last half of the hurricane season (2 1/2 months to go) would likely originate at or near the Caribbean. These storms could develop into hurricanes as the water temps are good for development, but the dynamics is questionable. They could go anywhere in the gulf, but if they are going to develop into hurricanes they are most likely to go to Mexico plus or minus a country north or south. However that does not mean that the northern gulf coast or even (less likely) FL western peninsula could be hit by a minor hurricane. That will become clearer in 3 or 4 weeks. Hard to imagine no more activity. I will monitor daily.

Peter Ray

Next forecast when something does develop.

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.


I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.


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Peter S. Ray

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