Colleagues, So far, my predictions for the rest of the season made a month ago are holding true. In short, nothing of (significant) concern for the USA. FORECAST: Tropical Storm Rafael has winds of 40 mph and is moving NW at 9 mph. By late afternoon it should pass over Puerto Rico and then more or less parallel the east coast and by mid week come close to Bermuda as it heads NE.
DISCUSSION: The environment for Rafael is complex, with alternating control to the mid Atlantic ridge and a series of approaching shortwaves and troughs and pulsing shear. None-the-less, there is no sustained "good" environment and while Rafael might have a period of strengthening, even approaching hurricane strengthening, it will not last. Local effects such as rougher seas and wind gusts will exist.
NEXT FORECAST: Nothing much happening here, so the next update will be Monday morning when new data will nearly finalize the remaining track.
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
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Peter S. Ray
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