HURRICANE SANDY and Tropical Storm Tony 10/25/2012 5:30 am

Colleagues, The season isn't quite over yet. FORECAST: TS Tony is headed for the Azors and unless you live at Ponta Degada, we can forget about Tony.

HURRICANE SANDY is currently a Category 2 storm with winds of 105 mph headed north at 18 mph out of eastern Cuba. it has a near bead on Long Island in the Bahamas. After that SANDY will parallel up the east coast maintaining 300 mile or do distance. No threat Florida and east coast for over a week except for possible heavier surf and rip tides. Some squalls are possible but not very significant. Forecast is less certain less certain next week in the models, with some having it turn of a landfall the mid or upper Atlantic coast. I do not believe these.

DISCUSSION: For the most part, this is another case of what has happened the last few years with these storms. As I have said, the only place where storms are likely to form is the Caribbean, and they are most likely to move to the North and NE. Another is in the mid west and another over Newfoundland. Between these is RELATIVELY high pressure which will steer Sandy to the NW, until the next trough arrives. I think this turn will not be that forceful, and that some of the models that NHC relies exaggerate the turn. Again in a day or two, I think it will be resolved. If it does somehow make land fall, it would do so as a Tropical Storm, not a hurricane. It will be clear in a couple of day, and any landfall would be nearly a week away and in the upper Atlantic coast.

There is a substantial trough approaching the area (Florida tomorrow and already the east coast). This will keep if clearly off shore well past Florida and the North Carolina

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow, Friday the 26th

Peter Ray

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Peter S. Ray

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