HURRICANE SANDY 10/26/2007 4:00 am

Colleagues, Hurricane SANDY will be not too bad until late Monday as it swings to the NW. I resist the hype of this "Perfect Storm" stuff, but boating interest at Gloucester, and all points north and south should exercise caution. FORECAST: Hurricane SANDY is about 300 miles east of Miami with maximum winds of 85 mph making it a Category 1 hurricane moving NNW at 12 mph. Later it will swing NE and accelerate as it moves up the east coast about 350 miles off shore, clearing North Carolina and DC. Sandy will remain a healthy Category 1 storm, and increase in size and the reach of Tropical Storm force winds, ROUGH, bad seas up all the east coast, and rip currents. Boating interests should beware all up the east coast. To paraphrase the NJ Governor, swimmers should get out of the darn water. SANDY is likely to come on-shore, nearly a strong extra-tropical cyclone along the NE coast near New York or a little south with at least strong Tropical Storm force winds and possibly a weak Category 1. My thinking it will be half hurricane and half extratropical storm. Inland flooding and power outages are to be anticipated. This weekend the landfall point will become clearer and more precise.

DISCUSSION: When I said something to the effect that Florida would not experience remarkable weather from this storm, I did not mean NO storms. Squall from the outer bands have for a few days raked across South and Central Florida bring gusts, and short periods of heavy rain, not unlike what can be experience during summer rains. This will continue through the weekend. On the positive side, South Florida can hardly get too much water, unless you like drinking salt water. It is the rains from summertime and tropical storms and hurricanes that percolate downward and recharge the aquifer and keep salt water intrusion out. Love that fresh water that comes with the price of sometimes inconvenient rain and gusts.

The path next week of SANDY is problematic. There are a series of long wave troughs (Fronts) approaching which will steer SANDY NE. HOWEVER, there are a series of short waves (less intense, fast moving troughs) that will be moving through them, which will drive SANDY to the NW and and is likely to push SANDY to the NW and onshore where it will weaken and become part of a frontal system.

NEXT FORECAST: Saturday, October 27

Peter Ray

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Peter S. Ray

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