Tropical Storm SANDY 10/27/2012 5:00 am

Colleagues, FORECAST: TS Sandy is now about 250 miles east of Melbourne, FL, and traveling NE at 10 mph. Slight intensification Monday morning then a steady decline in wind speed and by Tuesday , again a Tropical Storm. Landfall late Monday or early Tuesday morning as a strong TS/weak hurricane in the New Jersey area headed for Philadelphia. Again very rough seas all along the path clear up to at least Massachusetts. The winds on land will continue to decrease, and the threat is flooding as with ISAAC and loss of power due to downed power lines. It will be as bad over the whole area as ISAAC, but if you are affected, it is as bad. It will add increasing rain throughout western New York. The downside of Sandy is the broad area of rainfall and moderately strong winds in the NE USA. The is a very wide storm with impact (mainly rain) over an area several hundred miles away from the center.

The impact on Florida is diminishing (gone by late today) and will be minimal and mostly confined to the upper east coast of Florida and points north through North Carolina, although some squalls may move inland. The states along the Eastern Seaboard are and will be affected by the frontal system approaching from the west, and of course it is the interaction with SANDY and short waves for the potential for extreme rainfall, particularly North Carolina and points north.

Specifically, Washington DC should begin to experience deceasing weather Monday afternoon. Access to airports in the area marginal (could go either way) through Tuesday. Delays are certain. Nearly the same situation for New York. Snow only in the Appalachians. I stick with some rain, and while a potential for a lot of it, including flooding and downed power, NOT as bad (on the average) as ISAAC.

Situation for Vermont is much improved over what it was yesterday. No freezing temperatures, for the really cold air behind this front will NOT be that "Winterish" this early in the season. I'd stick with some rain some days, but nothing like ISAAC. In general, while not perfect, not bad.

DISCUSSION: SANDY has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm with winds of 70 mph, but there is really no difference between that and a hurricane with winds of 75 mph - essentially the same storm. As Sandy as weakened a bit, it has grown is size, extending the reach of Tropical storm force winds out a radius of nearly 200 miles. The deep and energetic trough and strong short wave approach from the North Carolina which will both give Sandy a burst of strength (for a day) and accelerate its transition to becoming extratropical, like a normal mid-latitude low pressure area.

NEXT FORECAST: Sunday morning, October 28, 2012

Peter Ray

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Peter S. Ray

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