Hurricane warning test email

Friends, This is primarily a test of the email system and the excellent help I have received from Hayes Computer Solutions,

Expect a more that average active year. Since records have been kept, the average number opf named storms is 12 per year with 6 hurricanes and 2-3 major hurricanes. However that number is certain to be low. In the more modern eaa the number would be about 3 more in each category, maybe 4 in the number of named storms. This all has mostly to do with detection capability.

The National Hurricane Center predictions are for 13-20 named storms with 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes. Hard to see they could not have bracketed what is most likely.

I would go with a more gutsy 16 named storms 9 hurricanes and 4 (maybe 5 major hurricanes). And I would go with Florida have one and maybe two hits.

Now, None of us really has much insight into these estimates, and they are really only little more than guesses. We are certain the number lies between 0 and 40, and we can certainly start to narrow that gap, but NO one thought there were going to be 28 names storms in 2005 and 7 major hurricanes. A time for a for a little modesty here,

I look forward to serving my friends and neighbors, near and far as this season heats up. My blog will open up soon on and there I can opine on a variety of weather and non weather subjects of interest to me, usually controversial to get us all to think more deeply about science and public policy.

See you all soon,

Peter Ray

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.


I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.


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Peter S. Ray

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