[hurricane-forecast] Tropical Storms

Friends, Not much to worry about - so far FORECAST: The area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche, in the SW Gulf about 1/2 between the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula and Mexico (20.2N, 93.4W) has winds of only 30 mph and his headed WNW about 10 mph. NO threat to Florida. In the next few days this system will move NW toward the Mexican coast, probably intensifying some as it goes. The concern is what will happen when a weak trough approaches it just as it is about to go inland. If the storm goes west, it will die immediately (quite possibly not even a tropical storm but still having rain and the threat of mud-slides). If it goes north or southeast, it could gain strength. The forcing is very week and so a small difference in the strength of the front will make a large difference in what happens. At this time there is NO indication that this is going to turn into a significant threat to anyone, anywhere. Most of the systems this year have been spawn from the area of the Yucatan Peninsula and have gone ashore in Mexico. And as I have tried to emphasize, the pre-season estimates of the season are close to pure guesses, this season is likely to bring that point home. Statistically, they show almost no skill. NEXT FORECAST: As soon as any change. Peter Ray DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it. NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS: I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems. SUBSCRIPTIONS: Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net. To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com. Peter S. Ray _______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net