[hurricane-forecast] Tropical Development in the Gulf 10/3/2013 5am

FRIENDS, Rough weather for the Gulf Coast this weekend, but no Hurricane. Even though NWS employees are on the job, they are restricting access to information which makes my objective analysis more difficult. They are paid, but doing less. Bad politics I believe. Still, I think I am ok on this one. FORECAST: This is a Tropical Depression just off the northern tip of the Yucatan, at 21.5 N and 86.6 W. Wind gusts are at least 45 mph and it will soon be named Tropical Storm Karen, I believe. Tropical Storm Karen will be short lived and make landfall around Mobile Bay this weekend as a week Tropical Storm if even that. There will be rough seas, storm surge about 8 feet, more or less depending where you are, rip currents, and periods of steady rain and gusts and squalls as well as calm moments. Spotty sunshine until the front passes. Think very strong frontal passage. or very week tropical storm. Other areas, just a Fall cold frontal passage. DISCUSSION: Conditions are favorable for increased strengthening for awhile, and then they become unfavorable both in wind shear and moisture. The approaching front will direct the storm between Apalachicola and New Orleans, most likely near Mobile Bay. But it won't make much difference since the effect will be widespread. Rain, rain and gusts. Boating interests should take appropriate precautions. It will be like a strong frontal passage with rain and gust across Florida with the "heaviest" weather in the Panhandle of Florida through the weekend. NOT a hurricane. Stay out of water if it is rough for rip currents are possible if surf is rough or high. It will pass and historic sunshine will prevail. NEXT FORECAST: Friday, October 4th (possibly before) Peter Ray DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it. NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS: I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems. SUBSCRIPTIONS: Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net. To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com. Peter S. Ray _______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net