[hurricane-forecast] Tropical Storm Karen 10/3/2013 4:00pm

Friends, The situation is a little fluid in intensity and time of landfall, but getting less fluid. Time for an update FORECAST: Tropical Storm Karen is just north of the Yucatan Peninsula (22.9N 88.2W) moving NNW at 11 mph with internal wind speeds of 65mph. Karen will be come a Cat. 1 hurricane tomorrow but it will weaken before landfall near Mobile Bay Saturday afternoon. At landfall (along the coast) it should be a strong tropical storm. Once onshore it will take an NE path and weaken fairly rapidly. There will be strong gusts along the coast, with some wind briefly reaching hurricane strength. Rip tides are certain. And the storm surge will be 10 feet or so, but that can be very different locally where the coastline can amplify the surge or decrease it. The Gulf coast is like that. Winds at land fall I expect the msw to be in the 50 - 55 mph range, decreasing rapidly inland. and away from the center. Not that bad at PC and Tallahassee. DISCUSSION: Wind shear is modest, structure is improving. Will round the high tomorrow and be picked up by an approaching trough which will steer Karen to the NE. Less favorable conditions (more wind shear and drier air) will cause a decline as it approaches the Coast. Showers and Gusts will extent all along the gulf coast to the east and even tomorrow down the Western Peninsula, but really not bad weather, much less than tropical storm except for some possible gust. Surge is mainly along the panhandle and a little bit in the "arm pit". Hardest hit will be Gulf Breeze to Pensacola. NEXT FORECAST: Friday morning Peter Ray DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it. NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS: I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems. SUBSCRIPTIONS: Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net. To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com. Peter S. Ray _______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net