[hurricane-forecast] Tropical Storm Karen 10/4/2013 4 am

Friends, Karen will strengthen a little more but then weaken and come ashore as a moderate tropical storm and no more. Think IDA (2009) for nearly identical impact on land only shifted a bit west. Not much impact east of Apalachicola. FORECAST: Tropical Storm Karen is has winds of 50 mph and is 350 miles south (24.9N 89.7W) from New Orleans. If landfall is in Louisiana it will be at Saturday night as a weak to moderate Tropical storm. If as I anticipate it is a little east in Mississippi to Mobile, it ill be 4 or 5 am Sunday morning. At this point, the impact on Tallahassee Saturday is next to nothing. Karen should have little or NO impact on the football game at FSU, increasingly less from what appeared possible before. It will make next to no difference. Forecast for Tallahassee should be for slight chance of showers. Frontal passage will be on Monday. DISCUSSION: Moderate wind shear and dry air are talking its toll on Karen, the weakening trend may be interrupted by some interaction with the trough, but not enough to make a difference. Gulf waters are warm, but Karen is structurally weak and this has prevented the anticipated momentary intensification. Storm surge is variable along the coast, but it should be modest (again, think of IDA for your location). NEXT FORECAST: TONIGHT Peter Ray DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it. NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS: I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems. SUBSCRIPTIONS: Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net. To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com. Peter S. Ray _______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net