[hurricane-forecast] Tropical Storm Karen 10/4/2013

Friends, Update on storm that can make up its mind FORECAST: Tropical Storm Karen is about 200 miles south or Louisiana (25.9N 90.3W) moving hardly at all, but will be moving N and NE. winds are 50 mph and NO chance of becoming a hurricane. In fact the general trend is toward weakening, but with periods of fluctuation and intensification (some). All the rain will be to the east of the center. Surge will be about 3 or 4 feet, but could be twice that locally if coastal conformation is conducive. Landfall on the gulf coast will not be before Sunday afternoon and maybe later. So much depends on when had the effect of the approaching trough has on this storm. It may be tomorrow afternoon before it is really clear. As for tomorrow and Tallahassee activities. Not to worry. scattered showers if any. Could be almost nothing. I would bet nothing much along the Florida Coast until at least Sunday and not too bad then. It could easily loose it TS status in the next few days. DISCUSSION: Winds are poor, moisture bad, steering week, but if it can hook up with the front in the right way, it could extend its life. It is not clear when it will move appreciably inland or slide along the coast. It will not make much difference. NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow morning. Peter Ray DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it. NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS: I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems. SUBSCRIPTIONS: Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net. To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com. Peter S. Ray _______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net