[hurricane-forecast] Tropical Storm Karen 10/4/2013 5 am

Friends, It just gets better for us and worse for Karen 10/4 over and out FORECAST: Tropical Storm Karen is locate about 100 miles SW of the tip of Louisiana (27.1N 91.3W) with msw of a mere 40 mph moving NNW at 8mph. Karen is likely to cross the tip of Louisiana this afternoon but make final landfall where I have always maintained, near Mobile Bay around Sunday afternoon. There may still be some intensity fluctuations, but it is clear that the days and hours of Karen are coming to a close, soon. Surge may of some concern for areas to the east of it's path, but high water possibilities are are diminishing except for sensitive areas. Karen will have essentially no effect on Tallahassee (ever) or the game today. In fact that goes for all of Florida east of Apalachicola. Western Panhandle will have some surge and rain tomorrow and Monday, but much less that seemed possible a couple of days ago. DISCUSSION: Karen took a Westward jog which is really good for for everyone except those in southern Louisiana. But even for those folks, this will be at most a weak tropical storm, so, not a major threat. Every thing is against Karen except a short lived boost when the front catches up to the storm. Karen could loose it TS status any time now!!! It is that dire for her. NEXT FORECAST: Tonight October 5 Peter Ray DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it. NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS: I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems. SUBSCRIPTIONS: Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net. To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com. Peter S. Ray _______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net