[hurricane-forecast] Hurricane Season Wrap up

Friends, I have resisted the temptation to write this email since about September 20 th, in the interest of not “jumping the gun” or “piling on”. The bottom line is that the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season was one of the quietest on record with only eleven named storms, and two hurricanes with no major hurricanes. It is not even certain that both of the named hurricanes were actual hurricanes and that not all the named storms deserved a name. This year is also an historical mark in the inaccuracy of preseason estimates. I have long said that there is little science in pre-season estimates and apparent skill exists only because that in most years the distributions tend to cluster about their average values, so that the lack of knowledge is masked by the statistical distribution. The reality becomes only apparent in years like 2005 and 2013. I suspect the prognosticators non-publically acknowledge the lack of skill. It is also amusing (and absurd) when the predictions include fractional storms (such as 16.2 named storms). The practice of hurricane prediction is largely driven by a public interest in having a number, and in some cases, a financial incentive. If this hurricane season had been more active than average, I suspect that fact would have “driven” insurance rates up. Now that we have had a succession of rather inactive years, it will be interesting to see if the same logic results in lower rates. The global distribution of hurricanes and typhoons presents some interesting research opportunities, which I intend to exploit. I will post a blog on the results of that study on my blog (www.hurricanehunt.com) when it is completed. As the 2013 Hurricane Season officially draws to a close, coincident with the advent of a season of thanksgiving and hope, I wish to sincerely thank all those who have supported me in various ways and to wish everyone the season’s greetings and blessings. I will check back in with this distribution list sometime in May in preparation for a (near average) hurricane season. Thank you, Peter Ray PS get ready for a wet lead-up to Thanksgiving. But not bad in Tally on Thanksgiving day. Weather in all of Florida should be good on Thanksgiving. The East Coast, and particular, the upper east coast should be bracing for in climate weather (unless you like winter storms: cold, windy, frozen precip) DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it. NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS: I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems. SUBSCRIPTIONS: Please do NOT send subscription messages to hurricane-forecasts@lists.hcs.net. To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to hurricane-forecast-request@lists.hcs.net with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to hurricanehunter007@gmail.com. Peter S. Ray _______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list hurricane-forecast@lists.hcs.net http://lists.hcs.net/mailman/listinfo/hurricane-forecast_lists.hcs.net