Colleagues, Now that the tropics are momentarily quiet, I will be adding content to my blog on different weather topics of possible interest to you. Feel free to check it out in the coming days. http://www.hurricanehunt.com I will post a blog next week after the the 4th. FORECAST: HURRICANE ALEX came ashore at 10 pm (EDT) with winds of 105 mph, a Category 2 hurricane, having gotten a surge of strength just before coming ashore form very warm coastal waters. Current position is over Central Mexico with winds of 80 mph, but rapidly decreasing. Later today it will no longer be a Hurricane, and by tomorrow only a tropical depression. It is and will continue to produce locally heavy rains in the Rio Grande valley in southern Texas.
DISCUSSION: HURRICANE ALEX did not slow down and came ashore 100 miles south of Brownsville a a couple of hours ahead of when I thought. Waves from the disturbed Gulf delayed an attempt to recover an additional 25,000 barrels of oil, but that should resume later this weekend as the Gulf waters settle down. The attempt to plug the well is very close, 90% of the first relief well is drilled with less than 1,000 feet to go. The second relief well is only a week or so behind. That drilling went on unabated by the higher seas during ALEX's passage. So, in the next week anticipate up to 50,000 barrels of oil being captured each day, and the relief well to be very close to hitting a bull's eye and the beginning of the attempt to load up the original well with so much drilling mud that the oil stops flowing up. That will takes weeks to execute.
NEXT FORECAST: The next indication of a developing tropical Storm
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:
I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.
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Peter S. Ray
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