HURRICANE ALEX 7/01/2010 6:30am

Colleagues, Now that the tropics are momentarily quiet, I will be adding content to my blog on different weather topics of possible interest to you. Feel free to check it out in the coming days. I will post a blog next week after the the 4th. FORECAST: HURRICANE ALEX came ashore at 10 pm (EDT) with winds of 105 mph, a Category 2 hurricane, having gotten a surge of strength just before coming ashore form very warm coastal waters. Current position is over Central Mexico with winds of 80 mph, but rapidly decreasing. Later today it will no longer be a Hurricane, and by tomorrow only a tropical depression. It is and will continue to produce locally heavy rains in the Rio Grande valley in southern Texas.

DISCUSSION: HURRICANE ALEX did not slow down and came ashore 100 miles south of Brownsville a a couple of hours ahead of when I thought. Waves from the disturbed Gulf delayed an attempt to recover an additional 25,000 barrels of oil, but that should resume later this weekend as the Gulf waters settle down. The attempt to plug the well is very close, 90% of the first relief well is drilled with less than 1,000 feet to go. The second relief well is only a week or so behind. That drilling went on unabated by the higher seas during ALEX's passage. So, in the next week anticipate up to 50,000 barrels of oil being captured each day, and the relief well to be very close to hitting a bull's eye and the beginning of the attempt to load up the original well with so much drilling mud that the oil stops flowing up. That will takes weeks to execute.

NEXT FORECAST: The next indication of a developing tropical Storm

Peter Ray

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Peter S. Ray

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