Tropical Storm BONNIE 7/23/2010 5:30am

Colleagues, I will discuss on storm days on the URL listed below in the blog section, issues that relate to the present storm, and of other weather topics on other days. Feel free to make suggestions. Feel free to check it out. http://www.hurricanehunt.com I will comment more on the impact on this storm on the oil operations on that blog this morning. FORECAST: Tropical Storm BONNIE  finally begins to get its act together after languishing off the north coast of Hispaniola.  BONNIE is presently about 200 miles ESE of Miami moving toward the NW at about 18 mph (this is FAST) and beginning to speed up. Tropical Storm BONNIE will nick the Southern tip of the Florida Peninsula today and will head right over the Deep Horizon Well, arriving Sunday and make land fall near Central Louisiana Sunday evening. South florida will experience Gale force winds especially today, but rain, occasionally heavy through the weekend. Some rain will likely come to the Panhandle mainly on Saturday and early Sunday. Mississippi, Alabama, probably in the form of gusts.

DISCUSSION: This storm had a hard time getting started and its intensity and path were not well defined until yesterday, when it got out of a hostile environment with too much shear for a week developing storm into a less hostile environment, but not good enough to intensify much. At this point, it is all BONNIE can do to remain a Tropical Storm. It is or soon will be coming around the Southern edge of a ridge which will guide it generally NW until landfall. By tonight BONNIE will be in the open Gulf.

NEXT FORECAST: Friday, today later in the afternoon due to the rapid evolution and sensitive position of this storm.

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.

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Peter S. Ray

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