Colleagues, I will discuss on storm days on the URL listed below in the blog section, issues that relate to the present storm, and of other weather topics on other days. Feel free to make suggestions. Feel free to check it out. http://www.hurricanehunt.com My assessment on the oil situation was added this morning. FORECAST: Tropical Storm BONNIE emerged from the Naples/Fort Myers Florida area as Tropical Depression with winds of 35 mph and moving WNW at 18 mph. BONNIE will strengthen to a weak Tropical Storm, and never approach being a hurricane. Landfall will be late Saturday in the area of the Mississippi Delta, after crossing the Deep Horizon Well. Some rain will likely come to the Panhandle mainly on Saturday and early Sunday. Mississippi, and Alabama might have some gale force winds in the form of gusts. The well should be unaffected.
DISCUSSION: This storm had a hard time getting started and its intensity and path were not well defined until yesterday, when it got out of a hostile environment with too much shear for a week developing storm into a less hostile environment, but not good enough to intensify much.Going over land weakened it from a weak Tropical Storm to a Tropical Depression. Winds remain not favorable, despite warm waters. I do expect BONNIE to strengthen some in the next 24 hours and become a weak Tropical Storm again, but no chance for it to become a hurricane. Other than a few affiliated showers Florida should have no impact. The storm track will be turning Northwesterly as it goes around the ridge.
NEXT FORECAST: Saturday morning.
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
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Peter S. Ray
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