Tropical Storm BONNIE 7/23/2010 5:00pm

Colleagues, I will discuss on storm days on the URL listed below in the blog section, issues that relate to the present storm, and of other weather topics on other days.  Feel free to make suggestions. Feel free to check it out. My assessment on the oil situation was added this morning. FORECAST: Tropical Storm BONNIE  emerged from the Naples/Fort Myers Florida area as Tropical Depression with winds of 35 mph and moving WNW at 18 mph. BONNIE will strengthen to a weak Tropical Storm, and never approach being a hurricane.  Landfall will be late Saturday in the area of the Mississippi Delta, after crossing the Deep Horizon Well.   Some rain will likely come to the Panhandle mainly on Saturday and early Sunday.  Mississippi, and Alabama might have some gale force winds in the form of gusts. The well should be unaffected.

DISCUSSION: This storm had a hard time getting started and its intensity and path were not well defined  until yesterday, when it got out of a hostile environment with too much shear for a week developing storm into a less hostile environment, but not good enough to intensify much.Going over land weakened it from a weak Tropical Storm to a Tropical Depression.  Winds remain not favorable, despite warm waters.  I do expect BONNIE to strengthen some in the next 24 hours and become a weak Tropical Storm again, but no chance for it to become a hurricane. Other than a few affiliated showers Florida should have no impact. The storm track will be turning Northwesterly as it goes around the ridge.

NEXT FORECAST: Saturday morning.

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Peter S. Ray

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