Tropical Depression BONNIE 7/24/2010 7:00am

Colleagues, FORECAST: Tropical Storm Bonnie is in mid-path between Naples Fl and where it will make landfall at the mouth of the Mississippi river in Louisiana. That will occur at very close to Midnight tonight. Present speed is about 17 mph. Bonnie will slow down a bit and strengthen a bit. Present sustained winds are 35 mph, and while that well might increase up to about 38 mph, even though NOAA call for it to become a minimal Tropical Storm, I think it will fall a mile or two per hour short of that. The impact on the coast should be minimal (which is not zero). It should more closely resemble that of a strong frontal passage.

DISCUSSION: Bonnie has and will remain in a high shear environment and will not overcome that obstacle to redevelopment. The present speed will slow down as Bonnie recurves around the western edge of the ridge, but it will not be dramatic and have no important consequence. I expect the oil abatement and kill activities will resume on Monday as the seas should quickly return to normal. It is possible that one or two of the monitoring vessels will remain on station durning the storm's passage although there is little for them to do except to monitor the well. There should be nothing associated with this storm's passage that is deleterious to the state of the well, except the extended time to the final solution.

NEXT FORECAST: Saturday evening.

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Peter S. Ray

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