Tropical Depression 5 8/11/2010 4 am

Colleagues, Check out a new blog to be posted this evening at http://www.hurricanehunt.com It is a bit controversial, and meant more to stimulate thought than to proselytize. Future blogs will concern more on decisions, global warming, and other serious future climate threats. FORECAST: There is a Tropical Depression with winds of 35 mph about 300 miles directly south of Tallahassee headed NW at 4 mph. It will make land fall near New Orleans/Mississippi (where else!), after passing close to the Deep Horizon well. Landfall will be tomorrow morning, possibly as Tropical Storm Danielle. It will make land fall with sustained winds of 40-45 mph. Not a great impact. Increased rainfall, locally heavy squalls, from the Florida Panhandle west into Louisiana through out the week.

DISCUSSION: Direction is around a ridge centered in the Southeaster United States. Should round the western edge today. That weak treat is the only thing active and there is nothing on the horizon. But we are entering the prime of the season, so in a week (two at the most) we should see the beginnings of more significant systems. Shouldn't really disrupt operations at the Deep Horizon well site. Storm surge will only be a few feet.

NEXT FORECAST: Thursday morning Aug. 12

Peter Ray

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.

NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:

I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.

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Peter S. Ray

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