Tropical Depression 5 8/12/2010 5 am

Colleagues, FORECAST: Tropical Depression 5 never quite made it to Tropical Storm status. Never-the-less it will make in on shore as predicted this am, broader and weaker, but with squally weather. The location of landfall remains as forecast - New Orleans/ Mississippi area. Squalls, locally heavy rain and gusts. That will be it.

DISCUSSION: The same as all season long so far, shear. But what was interesting and intriguing was that all day yesterday, from Ft. Myers, FL to New Orleans, and even west of there. Strong, locally intense storms would form about 40-50 miles off shore and move towards land. This is everywhere along the coast. As soon as thy got to land, they immediately died. This happened time and time again all along the coast. So not much rain inland from this storm but slightly off shore, rain, heavy rain and and more rain. Today, expect locally heavy rain in the form of mostly small showers to move inland all along the gulf coast, but concentrated in the New Orleans/Mississippi/ Alabama region. Do not expect significant tropical development the rest of the week and at least well into next week. It will come, but not just yet.

NEST FORECAST: Next time tropical weather threatens

Peter Ray

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Peter S. Ray

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