Tropical Depression 6 8/22/2010 4 am

Colleagues, FORECAST: Tropical Depression 6 is off the west coast of Africa, and moving WNW with maximum winds speeds estimated to be about 35 mph. This depression will intensify over the next several days, but it is highly unlikely to make landfall in the US, and even less likely to make landfall in Florida.

DISCUSSION: Conditions are favorable for considerable intensification, but but it is not being steered far enough south to affect us. However, we are entering the time of year of maximum hurricanes, for the next 60 days. Toward the last half, storms can form in the Caribbean and intensify very rapidly ( in a day or so ) so a bit more vigilance is in order this time of year. I think it is safe to say, however, that the seasonal forecasts for a very active season were overstated. Average seems to be more accurate. That is good news for most people. Why? There will be explanations to follow. Undoubted the unusually warm ( ok, hot) weather over the continents are part of the story. I will keep a watch on this system, but the next system is more likely to impact us more directly.

NEXT FORECAST: Tomorrow morning

Peter Ray

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Peter S. Ray

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