Colleagues, Check out the new blog, meant to stimulate internal and external discussion at htttp:// Lately the contributions have related to aspects of decision making. Coming up, global warming, climate change and other more directly meteorological topics.

FORECAST: HURRICANE DANIELLE is about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands traveling WNW at 20 mph. and with msw winds of 100 mph, making it a Category 2 Hurricane. The path will gradually turn more northward, but remain well off shore. HURRICANE DANIELLE will continue to intensify through Thursday becoming a Category 3 (a major hurricane) tomorrow. After Thursday, it will begin its final weakening. No threat to the USA.

DISCUSSION: By Friday, DANIELLE, will be at the latitude of Miami but 1500 miles east of Florida. By Sunday, DANIELLE will pass 150 miles east of Bermuda, but the island could get some rain and squalls. As the week progresses, DANIELLE will begin to turn more Northerly as the ridge begins to weaken. Still, no threat to the USA. Haiti can profit from the lull in the wind and rain in that country's effort to recover from the earthquakes. This is certainly good for them to not have to contend with more natural disasters for awhile. But that luck is unlikely to survive the rest of the Hurricane Season.

There is another area of tropical disturbance just emerging from Africa. This could be be our next storm in a few days. It is that time of year.

NEXT FORECAST: We will continue to follow this because this storm will become a Major Hurricane (category 3 or greater, msw wind speeds greater than 111 mph) Next forecast Wed morning.

Peter Ray

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.


I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.


Please do NOT send subscription messages to

To subscribe or unsubscribe to the hurricane forecast list send an email to with "subscribe" or "unsubscribe" as the subject. You can manage your subscription at: If someone wishes to contact me, they can send an email to

Peter S. Ray

_______________________________________________ hurricane-forecast mailing list