Colleagues, Check out the new blog, meant to stimulate internal and external discussion at http://www.hurricanehunt.com Lately the contributions have related to aspects of decision making. Coming up, global warming, climate change and other more directly meteorological topics.
FORECAST: HURRICANE DANIELLE got into a patch of undetected shear and weakened, and for awhile the msw dropped to about 65 mph, making DANIELLE for a few hours a Tropical Storm again, But she is back to Hurricane strength today with winds of 85 mph. The forecast track remains unaltered from the beginning, but the intensity set-back will keep it from becoming a weak Category 3. DANIELLE is about 20 deg N (about the same latitude as Haiti) , headed NW at 17 mph. No threat to the USA.
DISCUSSION: On Friday, DANIELLE, will be at the latitude of Miami but 1300 miles east of Florida. By Sunday, DANIELLE will pass 150 miles east of Bermuda, but the island should get some rain and squalls. As week progresses, DANIELLE will begin to turn more Northerly as the ridge begins to weaken. Major turn to the North on Sunday. Still, no threat to the USA. Except for the unanticipated weakening due to the undetected shear, DANIELLE is progressing as forecast. Hope to keep it that way.
There is another area of tropical disturbance just emerging from Africa. This area south of the Cape Verde Islands show a high likelihood of continued development and it is very likely to become a Tropical Storm in the next few days. If so, the track will be similar to that of DANIELLE, but shifted to the west. If this area continues to develop, it would not come close to the USA for at least 2 weeks and a lot of clarification will be possible in that time. For the next few days, all we can do it just watch it and see what develops.
NEXT FORECAST: Next forecast Thursday morning.
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states at no cost to those who receive it.
NEW BLOG AND DONATIONS:
I have set up a website and blog which may be reached at URL http://www.hurricanehunt.com In this website you can find the forecast, as well as a blog of expanded interests of mine dealing with weather and climate and hurricanes, and an opportunity for you to comment as well. There is also an opportunity for you to contribute to defraying the increasing costs of maintaining this service, if and only if you want to. This must always be a not for profit public service and free as long as I have anything to do with it. But I have had offers of help in the past and it is increasingly difficult for me to underwrite all the cost, even with the generous and gracious support form Hayes Computer Systems.
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Peter S. Ray
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