FRIENDS, Not much has changed. If you have an outside picnic, be close to shelter. You might be able to squeeze in an outside event as the weather for most of Florida will not be
much different than it has been, except for an increase in rain probability and Pensacola more within the radius of a "bulls-eye".
FORECAST: ALBERTO is unlikely to become a hurricane. ALBERTO is really unorganized at this time, just getting its act together anthropomorphically speaking. Landfall is likely to be a little east of New Orleans and this increases the effects of the storm eastward to Apalachicola, and puts more focus on places like Tallahassee which will be (relatively) marginally impacted, mostly rain and some possible gusts.
Landfall is likely to be late late Monday or early Tuesday. All this depends on how the winds and pressure fields evolve in the path of Alberto. The changes are not expected to be great, but they will impact the speed, direction and intensity of the storm. Storm surge, lightning, strong winds and gusts are all part of this system. But not a hurricane. ALBERTO is entering territory where evolving environmental elements are critical to its path, speed and intensity. So that is what I am focused on. (sorry for ending the sentence with a preposition). Effects on Tallahassee will not be great, except more rain and the possible culling of a few more trees.
DISCUSSION: Most of the forecast remains intact. What has and is changing it the environment the ALBERTO is entering. There are elements that are conducive to strengthening and
a faster forward speed, and elements that would favor disorganization, and weakening with a different steering flow. These are hard to know precisely and the consequences are not great (just a few hours wrt time of landfall, and intensity ( maybe 10 or 15 mph). They are non-the-less important. For most of Florida, the effects will me minimal. Just (mainly) the western part of the Panhandle.
Next Forecast: Possibly this evening and certainly tomorrow morning.
Peter S. Ray
DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any
FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased
my own computer for making and sending these forecasts. I have been
touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have
received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the
Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the
citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set
up the distribution software and is providing for the distribution of
these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I
acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort
and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for
the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states
at no cost to those who receive it.
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Peter S. Ray