FRIENDS, This is an update. The first storm emerges before the official start of the hurricane season. The only change from this mornings outlook is that land-fall will be sooner than I had thought. The accompanying weather and the land fall location and conditions remain the same. Just arriving a half a day sooner it seems. The weather associated with this storm will be strong gusts, storm surges, and periods of heavy rain along the Gulf Coast as far west as New Orleans. Landfall appears to be Monday. All of Florida will continue to have rains as it has been. This is an update to this mornings forecast. Obviously the rains will be more intense near landfall. Tallahassee will continue to have periods (perhaps a bit extended) on Monday and may also experience gusts, but not of tropical storm conditions.
FORECAST: This storm, to be named Alberto when it becomes a Tropical Storm, has left Yucatan today and has started to move north over reasonably conducive waters and
atmospheric conditions favorable for intensification. Weather in Florida and along the Gulf coast will continue to be
seasonally rainy with periods of no rain and of intense rain, with the intensity of rain increasing as the storm approaches. This is primarily a rain event
with serious rip tides (a big big caution about being in the water) with strong gusts. The Gulf coast will remain as it has been for the next 2 days but things will begin to
"pick up" on Memorial Day, and probably even late Sunday.
DISCUSSION: The synoptic pressure field will not provide the higher pressure to the north that I had thought. Thus the forward movement will be faster and thus landfall a half a day
sooner. The dangers and threats are the same, storm surge, flooding, rip tides, higher sea and the strong wind of a strong Tropical Storm. Heavy rain will accompany the storm. Until Monday, the weather will continue much as it has been, but slowly degrading. It still looks like west of Pensacola, perhaps near New Orleans is the likely place of land fall. This weekend the weather should be as it has been, with a notable increase in cloudiness and rain and seas that become increasingly rough, with rip tides developing with strong tropical storm force winds. Not a good time to surf aor be in the water.
Next Forecast: Tomorrow morning.
Peter S. Ray
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Peter S. Ray