FRIENDS, Not much has changed. You can pretty much move Memorial Day activities indoors or at least have that as an option. The word is RAIN, and the two words are NO HURRICANE.
TS Alberto will make for a wet Florida, especially the panhandle.
FORECAST: Tropical Storm ALBERTO is now directly south of Tallahassee and west of Fr. Meyers. I will turn NNW and strengthen in the next 24 hours. But this is a gusty, rip tide, some
storm surge rainmaker. Alberto will NOT become a hurricane. Alberto remains unorganized .at this time, Most likely landfall point point has shifted some to the east to just west of Panama City to Pensacola. But all of the Florida Panhandle, and indeed all of the Florida's west coast should be concerned about rip tides, storm surge to some extent and lots of rain.
We have and will face worse!! Landfall is likely to be early afternoon Monday, but the weather over most of the panhandle will be rainy with gusts all day. No chance of it becoming even a weak hurricane. Remember - stay. out of the water along the Gulf Coast. Some storm surge along the panhandle and big bend area, including Cedar Key, but not that bad. The amplitude of surge varies a lot along the coast depending on coastal characteristics. Gusts, rip tides, and Rain. (And if you are in Tallahassee, a possibility of the culling of trees and limbs)
DISCUSSION: The difficulty is that Tropical Storm Alberto is disorganized with competing forces. Warmer waters and diffluence aloft favors intensification, but other environmental conditions are evolving and mostly mitigate intensification. The net result is some modest intensification but all withing the range of a Tropical Storm and not even close to a hurricane. Rain, Rain, Gusts, variable Surge, Rip Tides. Enjoy your indoor picnic, and remember what Memorial Day is about: not the food, but for those of us alive to collectively remember the sacrifice of those who could not be with us.
Next Forecast: This evening for sure about 9 pm.
Peter S. Ray
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Peter S. Ray