Alberto 5/27/18

FRIENDS, Not much has changed.  You can pretty much move Memorial Day activities indoors or at least have that as an option.  The most important word is RAIN, and the most important two words are NO HURRICANE.

TS Alberto will make for a wet Florida, especially the panhandle. Not all of the panhandle will even experience sustained Tropical Storm Force winds.  Maybe this has been over hyped.


FORECAST: Tropical Storm ALBERTO  is about 75 miles south of Apalachicola headed NNE at about 13 mph.  Maximum sustained winds are about 50 mph.  Alberto will NOT become a hurricane. In fact, most of Florida and most of the the Florida Panhandle will not even experience sustained Tropical Storm force winds.   Alberto is struggling to gain  strength, while the environment resists and time is running out.  Most likely landfall point  will be near  Panama City. But all the Panhandle of Florida will be impacted essentially the same.  Rain for hours and some surge.  We have and will face worse!!  Surge at Ceder Key will be only a couple of few feet, but potentially more  at selected spots along the Gulf coast.  Landfall is f early  Monday morning about daylight, but the weather over most of the panhandle will be rainy with gusts all day.   No chance of it becoming even a weak hurricane.  Remember - stay. out of the water along the Gulf Coast.  Rip currents along the panhandle and big bend area.  The amplitude of surge varies a lot along the coast depending on coastal characteristics.  Gusts, rip tides, and Rain. (And if you are in Tallahassee, a possibility of  culling a few  trees and limbs)


DISCUSSION:  The difficulty is that Tropical Storm Alberto  is disorganized with competing forces.  Warmer waters and diffluence aloft favors intensification,  but other environmental conditions (dry air) will mitigate intensification. The net result is some modest intensification but all withing the range of a Tropical Storm and not even close to a hurricane.  Rain, Rain, Gusts, variable Surge, Rip Tides. Rainfall totals will be several inch throughout Florida and with 2-4 inches total in the panhandle, and maybe a bit more in the western panhandle.  Enjoy your indoor picnic, and remember what Memorial Day is about:   not  the food, but for those of us alive to collectively remember the sacrifice of those who could not be with us. 


Next Forecast: Monday morning

Peter S. Ray

DISCLAIMER: The Florida State University required that I not use any
FSU equipment to send out these forecasts. To comply, I have purchased
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touched by the many offers of encouragement and support that I have
received. I am deeply indebted to the Secretary and the staff of the
Department of Children and Families who value these forecasts for the
citizens of Florida. Also to the firm Hayes Computer Systems, which set
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these forecasts at no cost. They are very professional and competent. I
acknowledge that these forecasts are mine alone, by my own effort
and initiative. I only try to provide the best possible forecasts for
the community, and the State of Florida and now, surrounding states
at no cost to those who receive it.


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Peter S. Ray